Rent Growth Potential

I've been analyzing a rcent multifamily acquisition in the Southeast, and I'm curious to hear from the room: what are some key indicators you use to validate in-plce vs. pro-forma rents when evaluating a value-add opportunity? The property in question has a stated cap rate of 6.5%, but I'm skeptical abbout the seler's pro-formma projections, which assume significant rent growth over the next 24 months. The current in-place rents are approximately $1,200 per unit, but the seller is projecting an average rent increase of 15% per year for the next two years, which would put the average rent at over $1,600 per unit. While the property does have some deferred maintenance and aesthetic issues that could be addressed through a renovation, I'm not convinced that the local market will support such aggressive rent growth. What are some red flags or warning signs that you look for when evaluating a value-add opportunity, and how do you validate the seller's pro-forma projections? Are there any specific metrics or benchmarks that you use to determine whether a particular property has legitimate rent growth potential?